Abstract:- Operational Weather Research & Forecasting – Advanced
Research WRF in short WRF (ARW) 9 km x 9 km Model (IMD) based rainfall
forecast of India Meteorological Department (IMD) is utilized to compute
rainfall forecast over River basins in Odisha during Flood season 2014. The
performance of the WRF Model at the sub-basin level is studied in detail. It
is observed that the IMD’s WRF (ARW) day1, day2, day3 correct forecast range
lies in between 31-47 %, 37-43%, and 28-47% respectively during the flood
season 2014.
Keywords: GIS; WRF (ARW); IMD; Flood 2014; Odisha
I. Introduction
Forecast during the monsoon season river sub-basin wise in
India is difficult task for meteorologist to give rainfall forecast where the
country have large spatial and temporal variations. India Meteorological
Department (IMD) through its Flood Meteorological Offices (FMO) is issuing
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) sub-basin wise for all Flood prone
river basins in India (IMD, 1994). There are 10 FMOs all over India spread in
the flood prone river basins and FMO Bhubaneswar, Odisha is one of them. The
Categories in which QPF are issued are as follows
Rainfall (in mm)
|
0
|
1-10
|
11-25
|
26-50
|
51-100
|
>100
|
Odisha
is an Indian state on the subcontinent’s east coast, by the Bay of Bengal. It
is located between the parallels of 17.49’ N and 22.34’ N Latitudes and
meridians of 81.27’ E and 87.29’ E Longitudes. It is surrounded by the Indian
states of West Bengal to the north-east and in the east, Jharkhand to the
north, Chhattisgarh to the west and north-west and Andhra Pradesh to the south.
Bhubaneswar is the capital of Odisha.
Odisha
is the 9th largest state by area in India and the 11th
largest by population. Odisha has a coastline about 480 km long. The narrow,
level coastal strip including the Mahanadi river delta supports the bulk of the
population. On the basis of homogeneity, continuity and physiographical
characteristics, Odisha has been divided into five major morphological regions.
The Odisha Coastal Plain in the east, the Middle Mountainous and Highlands
Region, the Central Plateaus, the western rolling uplands and the major flood
plains.
A.
River System
The river system of Odisha comprises the Mahanadi, Brahmani,
Baitarani, Subarnarekha, Vamasadhara, Burhabalanga, Rushikulya, Nagavali,
Indravati, Kolab, Bahuda, Jambhira and other tributaries and distributaries.
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